Prediction Market Expert (AI Research)
About The Role
We're looking for sharp, analytically minded individuals to join a remote AI research project focused on structured forecasting and probability analysis. Your expertise in evaluating real-world events will directly help train and improve AI models that reason about uncertainty.
If you follow geopolitics, financial markets, elections, sports, or major world events — and you think in probabilities — this role was made for you.
Type: Hourly Contract
Location: Fully Remote
Commitment: Flexible hours, work on your own schedule
What You'll Do
Assess and forecast the outcomes of real-world, industry, and market events
Assign well-reasoned probability estimates grounded in current events and public information
Articulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in structured annotation formats
Review and evaluate prediction-related data for accuracy and consistency
Interpret rapidly evolving news cycles and intelligence signals
Maintain high annotation quality across a range of forecasting tasks
Who You Are
Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not just certainties
Up-to-date on current events, market trends, or geopolitical developments
Able to articulate your reasoning clearly in writing
Detail-oriented and consistent in your analytical approach
Familiar with prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus) — a plus, but not required
Self-motivated and comfortable working independently in a remote environment
Nice to Have
Background in finance, economics, political science, statistics, or journalism
Experience participating in forecasting tournaments or prediction platforms
Familiarity with Bayesian reasoning or structured analytic techniques
Why Join Us
Work on cutting-edge AI research with real-world impact
Fully remote and flexible — work when it suits you
Freelance autonomy with the opportunity for ongoing contract work
Contribute your unique analytical perspective to advance AI reasoning capabilities
Join a global community of domain experts shaping the future of AI